What is the Prediction Economy?
The world is moving from watching events to taking positions. This is the category taking shape and the infrastructure behind it.
THE SHIFT
From watching events to taking positions.
Prediction markets let you trade on the outcome of any future event peer-to-peer, priced by the crowd, with no house taking the other side.
THE SHIFT
From watching events to taking positions.
Prediction markets let you trade on the outcome of any future event peer-to-peer, priced by the crowd, with no house taking the other side.
THE SHIFT
From watching events to taking positions.
Prediction markets let you trade on the outcome of any future event peer-to-peer, priced by the crowd, with no house taking the other side.
WHERE IT SITS
Not betting.
Not traditional trading.
Prediction Markets vs. Betting
Prediction Market
Peer-to-peer. The price is the crowd's probability. No house.
Betting
You play against the house, on fixed odds set with a built-in margin.
Betting
You play against the house, on fixed odds set with a built-in margin.
Prediction Markets vs. Trading
Prediction Market
Trade the outcome of a real-world event as a YES/NO contract.
Trading
Trade an asset's price. Prediction markets add a whole new asset class.
Trading
Trade an asset's price. Prediction markets add a whole new asset class.
why now
The category is breaking out.
The category is breaking out.
Three shifts turned prediction markets from a niche into a real market layer.
Three shifts turned prediction markets from a niche into a real market layer.
Regulation opened up
CFTC-regulated event contracts made a compliant US market possible.
Regulation opened up
CFTC-regulated event contracts made a compliant US market possible.
Behavior shifted
Audiences expect to participate in events in real time, 24/7.
Behavior shifted
Audiences expect to participate in events in real time, 24/7.
Rails matured
Deep liquidity and on-chain settlement finally make it scalable.
Rails matured
Deep liquidity and on-chain settlement finally make it scalable.
prediction markets 101
The basics, in a minute.
Event contract
(01)
Price = Probability
(02)
Peer-to-peer
(03)
Resolution & Oracles
(04)
Liquidity
(05)
Still have unanswered questions about prediction markets?
A YES/NO contract on whether a future event is going to happen.
Event contract
(01)
Price = Probability
(02)
A contract trading at 63¢ implies the market sees a 63% chance.
Peer-to-peer
(03)
Resolution & Oracles
(04)
Liquidity
(05)
Still have unanswered questions about prediction markets?
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Powering the Prediction Economy.
Powering the Prediction Economy.
Powering the Prediction Economy.